Thursday 30 April 2009

ONE YEAR SHARE PRICE TELLS THE TALE

BLUE LINE - RETAIL FOOD GROUP (RFG)
RED LINE - ALLIED BRANDS LTD (ABQ)

Retail Food Group is positive cash flow
Allied Brands Ltd bleeding cash

The market speaks.


ANOTHER FAILED KOREAN "VISA" B/R SHOP

Baskin-Robbins / Cookieman shop at Brunswick & Kent Streets in New Farm Brisbane has been stripped from the owner, a Korean migrant who purchased the shop from Allied Brands, David Graham, and their Korean agent Neo Columbus (neocolumbus.com). Allied Brands is currently running the shop, and likely preparing to resell it to another poor sucker.

This New Farm location was doomed from the start, in a centre with limited parking, traffic zooming past, and little neighbourhood business. Turnover was sometimes as low as $80 per day

Ads for franchisees have been running in South Korea that have phrases like "investment guaranteed" and "American Ice Cream Baskin-Robbins". These ads also guarantee Australian permanent residency under the Visa Subclass 163 program, another motivation for the purchase.


This category is for "skilled business operators". The now missing owners of New Farm were apparently not in that category - has paperwork been "dummied up" for these migrants in order to sell them a dud location?

This is not the first of the shops sold to Koreans that have been in ludicrous locations, and sold to the Koreans with residency visas of some sort.

We understand that this won't be the last Allied Brands (ABQ) hears from these Koreans. . . .




Tuesday 28 April 2009

ALLIED BRANDS JOKE


QUESTION: "HOW DO YOU MAKE $10 MILLION IN AUSTRALIAN FRANCHISING"


ANSWER: "GIVE LACHLAN MCINTOSH AND PETER GRAHAM $18 MILLION & WAIT FOR THEM TO SCREW IT UP"


Sunday 26 April 2009

ALLIED BRANDS LTD (ABQ)- SHARES ALMOST TWICE THE DECLINE OF THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET!

Allied Brands (ABQ) received commentary over this past weekend on a well-known Australian sharemarket blog. The advice - SELL, SELL, SELL.

ABQ has declined almost TWICE the ASX average (despite other companies in the same fast food space showing small declines or actual INCREASES in share price). However a review of Allied Brands operations by this blog (visits and discussions with franchisees at Cookieman, Baskin Robbins, Awesome Water, and suppliers) shows severe weakness in the group is expanding.

Here's a chart showing how much "under water" investors in Allied Brands have become:







You've got to wonder how much longer Allied Brands middle management that hold "options" instead of real cash (with almost $2M/year cash going to upper management) will continue to work for these worthless options.

Wednesday 15 April 2009

ALLIED BRANDS (ABQ) INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION TO COLOSSAL MISMANGEMENT

A well-known franchisee website has now taken notice of the catastrophe engulfing the Baskin Robbins franchisees in Australia.

The website is Blue Mau Mau.


Our situation has already garnered significant support and additional information is coming forward from current franchisees to this blog now.


Monday 13 April 2009

SYDNEY MORNING HERALD WARNS ON FRANCHISOR COLLAPSE, ALLIED BRANDS SHOWS MANY WARNING SIGNS

FROM TODAY'S SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

With economic conditions continuing to deteriorate the spotlight is now well and truly on the vulnerability of franchise systems.Placed into administration late last week, the Queensland-based kitchen and laundry franchise Kleenmaid joins three franchisors - Kleins, EzyDVD and Midas - which have failed in the past 10 months.


BASKIN ROBBINS AUSTRALIA HAS BEEN CLOSE TO COLLAPSE TWICE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS. THE FIRST TIME THEY USED THEIR SHAREMARKET FLOAT TO ACCESS CHEAP MONEY TO BAIL THEM OUT. THE SECOND TIME, LIQUIDATION EMPLOYEE LACHLAN MACINTOSH FROM KORDA MENTHA PULLED MORE CHEAP MONEY OUT OF HIS HAT.

The tough economic conditions serve as a valuable reminder that franchising is not immune to economic downtowns, nor is it a guarantee of business success. Both franchisors and franchisees can and do fail at the best of times, but are especially vulnerable during the current financial crisis.

ALLIED BRANDS LAST HALF-YEARLY REPORT SHOWED THEM AGAIN BURNING CASH AT A MASSIVE RATE. THIS MANAGEMENT FAILURE COUPLED WITH THE CONSUMER SPENDING DOWNTURN? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH.

Such failures are particularly traumatic as a failed franchisor inevitably means that franchisees lose everything.

These are not isolated cases. Franchisors have collapsed at regular intervals during the past 20 years. Barbara's House and Garden, Cut Price Deli and Traveland just a few prominent examples of where large numbers of franchisees have lost everything following the franchisor's collapse.

As economic conditions tighten, more franchise systems will come under pressure or fail altogether. This should put franchisors, franchisees and even potential franchisees on notice.

Franchisors need to do an urgent audit of their financial viability. Undercapitalised franchisors needing finance to survive or grow will come under considerable pressure, as will those franchisors that have previously relied on cheap credit to expand.


CHEAP CREDIT? ALARM BELLS ARE RINGING!

Franchisors thinking of expanding need to review those plans given the difficult economic conditions. Aggressive expansion plans maybe a recipe for disaster if the franchisor and franchisees are left exposed to declining consumer spending or the franchisor cuts corners on franchisee selection or training.

POORLY TRAINED FRANCHISEES? AGGRESSIVE EXPANSION PLANS? SMELLS LIKE ALLIED BRANDS, TOO. IN FACT THEY'VE BEEN SO AGGRESSIVE THEY'VE BEEN ADVERTISING FRANCHISES FOR SALE IN SOUTH KOREA, AND ARRANGING MIGRATION FOR THESE POOR SOULS.

Expansion plans should be carefully tailored to ensure that there is sufficient consumer demand to sustain the expansion and that only appropriate franchisees are recruited and given adequate training.

GO INTO A NEW BASKIN ROBBINS SHOP AND TRY TO CONVERSE IN ENGLISH!

Franchisees also should review their operations. Those in retailing will come under pressure as rents remain high while sales weaken. Franchisees need to keep a watchful eye on the franchisor's behaviour and look for danger signs of a franchisor in financial distress.

Trouble getting stock from the franchisor or long delays in being paid money owed by the franchisor should ring alarm bells.

BOTH CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED BY BASKIN ROBBINS FRANCHISEES. A HUGE NUMBER OF ICE CREAM FLAVOURS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF STOCK, INCLUDING FLAVOURS REQUIRED TO BE CARRIED BY FRANCHISEES. CURRENT FRANCHISEES ALSO REPORT CONTINUAL ICE CREAM SHORTAGES THE LAST FEW MONTHS, DURING WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN THE BUSY MONTHS. ALONG WITH OTHER DRY GOODS INCLUDING SHORTAGES OF LOCALLY PURCHASED ITEMS (MAYBE DUE TO UNPAID BILLS??)

Franchisees in these situations should seek legal advice as to possible breaches of the franchise agreement by the franchisor.

Potential franchisees must take more care and look very carefully at the franchisor's financial viability. Potential franchisees should be asking to see the franchisor's financial statements before signing the franchise agreement.

A franchisor's refusal to show a potential franchisee the most recent financial statements should sound very loud alarm bells. After all, a franchisor would not go into business with a financially shaky potential franchisee, so obviously a potential franchisee should not be going into business with a financially shaky franchisor.

REPRINTED FROM THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD, APRIL 14.

Thursday 2 April 2009

BASKIN ROBBINS FRANCHISEES RUN TO GET OUT OF SYSTEM THAT'S BLEEDING CASH

A message from a current Baskin Robbins franchisee has continued to expose the damage being done by Allied Brands Ltd (ABQ) to the system.

Existing franchisees have seen their profits stripped away by the unconscionable massive price rises in ice cream as well as other "captive" items (paper goods, cups, cones, supplies) that MUST be purchased from Allied Brands Ltd.

As a result, more than 24 Baskin Robbins franchises are now FOR SALE in Australia.


The vast majority of these shops are existing locations.

Allied Brands Ltd. share pricing hovers at .135/share - down by 60% from their share float. The company is now valued at 22% LESS than was paid for Cookie Man, Kenny's Card Shops, and Awesome Water - not counting Baskin Robbins, the only international brand!